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* SIP will disrupt telecoms value chain: good news for mobile operators, ISPs and ASPs

* SIP-SMS gateways, due in 2003, will boost ARPU from 2G services

* 200 million SIP clients by 2007 will accelerate popularity of SIP services; Microsoft adoption of SIP for Windows XP a factor


CAMBRIDGE, UK, March 15, 2002 - The growing popularity of instant messaging is likely to boost revenues from session initiation protocol (SIP) based services, particularly on mobile networks, with revenues rising from zero in 2002 to €2.9 billion in 2007 (see Figure 1), according to Session Initiation Protocol: SIP-related European revenue forecasts 2002-2007. This new report is published this week by Analysys, the global advisor on telecoms and new media ( http://www.analysys.com).



"We believe SIP-based instant messaging on the fixed Internet could take off fast and create a significant market for SMS-SIP gateways, which allow seamless messaging across fixed and mobile networks," says Margaret Hopkins, author of the new report. "SIP is a disruptive technology that has the potential to fundamentally change the way telecoms services are delivered - great news for mobile operators, ASPs and ISPs."




SIP is a new signalling technology developed by the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) to provide a means of setting up real-time communications on the Internet - phone calls, instant messaging, videoconferencing, multimedia conferencing and chat sessions.



Figure 1: SIP-related revenues for Western Europe by service type, 2002-2007, high-case scenario [Source: Analysys Research, 2002] - available to journalists on request.




SIP already has widespread industry support, says Analysys: it has been incorporated into 3G mobile standards and Microsoft has built a SIP client into Windows XP. Analysys estimates that by 2007 there will be over 200 million Western European SIP clients on desk-tops, in mobile phones and in PDAs - driven mainly by instant messaging, which is already hugely popular in North America.




"The sheer simplicity and flexibility of SIP makes it particularly easy for service developers such as Hotsip and Avaya to work with, and as a result we believe SIP will form the basis of many low-cost value-added services provided over the public switched telephone network and Internet protocol infrastructure," adds Hopkins. However, in the short term, as Figure 1 shows, the dominant revenue stream will come from linking fixed and mobile SIP to SMS messaging, a service which has the potential to grow the SMS market too.



The Analysys high-case scenario, which assumes that instant messaging will take-off and that all new handsets support SIP, forecasts that revenues from SIP-SMS gateways (available from next year) will be worth over €650 million by 2004, and will then peak at €2.3 billion in 2006, before tailing off as the installed base moves to 2.5G and 3G phones.



"Mobile operators have the strongest case for deploying SIP and these gateways provide a new source of additional SMS revenues from 2G phones to fixed SIP terminals," continues Hopkins. "This should increase average revenue per user as SIP becomes established as a unified messaging platform across fixed and mobile networks. Genie has already launched a service connecting SMS to fixed instant messaging."



The report assesses the revenue potential for SIP-related services for telecom operators, mobile operators and other service providers. Forecasts are provided for Western Europe, France, Germany, Sweden and the UK to 2007, for terminals in use, and for revenues and ARPU, broken down by service category: business and residential; mobile, narrowband and broadband; messaging, conferencing, and secure presence servers.



The report is available at £1100 for single-user electronic access, one paper copy and one hour of Analyst support. For more information, telephone Analysys Research on +44 (0)1223 341300 or email research@analysys.com .



About Analysys ( http://www.analysys.com)



Analysys, the global advisor in telecoms, IT and new media, works at the forefront of the communications revolution, delivering advice and insight to established and new entrant players. From offices in Cambridge, London, Glasgow, Madrid, Milan, Paris, San Francisco and Washington DC, Analysys staff provide strategy and systems consultancy, conferences, information services and start-up support to the companies that are creating the networked economy. Analysys Research reports, papers and online services provide authoritative coverage of this convergent industry, based on an unrivalled ability to fuse real-world experience, rigorous research and forward-looking analysis.


Recent products include:


* Public Wireless LAN Access: US Market Forecasts 2002-2007 (January 2002)

* Video Streaming for Enterprise: forecast revenues for service providers (December 2001)

* GPRS Roaming: technical options and strategic implications (December 2001)

* Storage Area Networks: New Revenues for Optical Carriers? (November 2001)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: Market Forecasts (November 2001)

* Pricing GPRS Services (October 2001)

* FRIACO: how capacity-based interconnection strengthens the Internet market (October 2001)

* Meeting the Challenges of GRPS Billing (September 2001)

* The Bandwidth Exchange: Herald of a New Carrier Age (August 2001)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: A Threat to Mobile Operators? (August 2001)

* Controlling the 3G Value Chain (July 2001)

* Successfully Marketing Mobile Data Services to SMEs (July 2001)

* Gigabit Ethernet: the solution to the MAN bandwidth bottleneck? (July 2001)

* Market Realities of IP-VPNs (July 2001)



Media contacts (for author photography, executive summaries and interviews):


Martin Brooke
Martin Brooke Associates
Tel: +44 (0)1223 264050
Email: martin.brooke@dial.pipex.com


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