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- Market needs non-voice services now to stimulate recovery as saturation
point nears


- Messaging and infotainment key to increased ARPU and will grow from
EUR7.6 billion in 2001 to EUR44 billion in 2007


- GPRS services slow to take-off, but will smooth the way for UMTS from 2005


CAMBRIDGE, UK, March 21, 2002 - Mobile services will generate EUR97 billion
in revenue across Western Europe in 2002, just 4% more than in 2001,
according to a new report released today by Analysys, the global advisor on telecoms and new media ( http://www.analysys.com).


Mobile services revenue rose 12%


in the previous year, but the rate of growth has slowed substantially as
operators are caught in a double-bind of fewer new subscribers and falling
average revenue per user (ARPU).



The report, Western European Mobile Forecasts and Analysis 2002-2007, points
out that with 70% of Western Europe's population having a mobile phone, the
market is nearing its saturation point of around 80% penetration - and
operators need to increase the usage of non-voice services now to stimulate
a recovery in ARPU.


"Operators have been trying to increase ARPU to counter the effects on
revenue of slowing subscriber growth, but it will be some years before ARPU
returns to the levels seen in 2000 or even 2001," commented principal
analyst Katrina Bond, the report's author.



Mobile operators have suffered from falling ARPU for voice services over
many years, and have been attempting to compensate by encouraging usage of
non-voice services such as messaging, downloadable ringtones and mobile
Internet access. They have seen some success in stimulating usage - Analysys
estimates that non-voice services accounted for 8% of mobile ARPU across
Western Europe in 2001 - but the overall trend in ARPU is still downward
(see Figure 1).



Figure 1: Mobile service ARPU in Western Europe by service category,
2000-2007 [Source: Analysys Research, 2002] - available to journalists on
request.



This means that the next few years will see very slow growth for overall
mobile revenue. The long-term outlook, however, is more positive: Analysys
forecasts mobile services revenue of EUR135 billion for 2007, of which it
expects 37% to be from non-voice services (see Figure 2). The growth in
non-voice service revenue will be driven mainly by messaging and
infotainment services, revenue from which Analysys forecasts will grow from
EUR7.6 billion in 2001 to EUR44 billion in 2007.



"For consumers, the operators will build on the current popularity of text
messaging and start to provide multimedia messaging from the second half of
2002," says Bond, "while for businesses mobile email will be their most
important messaging service."


With delays expected in the arrival of third-generation (3G) mobile
services, Analysys predicts a wide window of opportunity for GPRS as an
interim technology. GPRS is also helping to smooth the path for 3G, by
allowing operators to address issues associated with providing advanced
mobile data services to prepaid customers and international travellers now.


Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in Western Europe by service category,
2001-2007 [Source: Analysys Research, 2002] - available to journalists on
request.


The report analyses the key trends in the Western European mobile market and
examines the progress made with GPRS and UMTS. It also provides detailed
market forecasts for Western Europe as a whole, and individually for France,
Germany, Italy, Sweden and the UK. Available in pdf and Powerpoint formats,
pricing starts from EUR1445. For more information, telephone Analysys
Research on +44 (0)1223 341300 or email research@analysys.com .


About Analysys ( http://www.analysys.com)


Analysys, the global advisor in telecoms, IT and new media, works at the
forefront of the communications revolution, delivering advice and insight to
established and new entrant players. From offices in Cambridge, London,
Glasgow, Madrid, Milan, Paris, San Francisco and Washington DC, Analysys
staff provide strategy and systems consultancy, conferences, information
services and start-up support to the companies that are creating the
networked economy.

Analysys Research reports and database services provide
authoritative coverage of this convergent industry, based on an unrivalled
ability to fuse real-world experience, rigorous research and forward-looking
analysis.

Recent reports include:

* Session Initiation Protocol: SIP-related European revenue forecasts
2002-2007 (February 2002)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: US Market Forecasts 2002-2007 (January 2002)

* Video Streaming for Enterprises: forecast revenues for service providers
(December 2001)

* GPRS Roaming: technical options and strategic implications (December 2001)

* Storage Area Networks: New Revenues for Optical Carriers? (November 2001)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: Market Forecasts (November 2001)

* Pricing GPRS Services (October 2001)

* FRIACO: how capacity-based interconnection strengthens the Internet market
(October 2001)

* Meeting the Challenges of GPRS Billing (September 2001)

* The Bandwidth Exchange: Herald of a New Carrier Age (August 2001)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: A Threat to Mobile Operators? (August 2001)

* Controlling the 3G Value Chain (July 2001)

* Successfully Marketing Mobile Data Services to SMEs (July 2001)

* Gigabit Ethernet: the solution to the MAN bandwidth bottleneck? (July 2001)

* Market Realities of IP-VPNs (July 2001)


Media contacts (for author photography, executive summaries and interviews):


Natalie Dargan
Analysys Research
Tel: +44 (0)1223 341300
Email: natalie.dargan@analysys.com


Martin Brooke
Martin Brooke Associates
Tel: +44 (0)1223 264050
Email: martin.brooke@dial.pipex.com

This press release was distributed by ResponseSource Press Release Wire on behalf of Martin Brooke Associates in the following categories: Consumer Technology, Personal Finance, Business & Finance, Computing & Telecoms, for more information visit https://pressreleasewire.responsesource.com/about.