- Market uncertainties will encourage telecoms players to utilise scenarios,
rather than single market forecasts, for long-term planning
- In Europe, critical uncertainties are identified as customer demand for
new services, technical success of new mobile data services, and changes in
- Analysys’s three scenarios (Championship Bout, Prize Fight and Free for
All) demonstrate variations in revenue forecasts for fixed voice, broadband
and mobile voice and data services
- Forecasts are provided for Western Europe plus France, Germany, Sweden and
CAMBRIDGE, UK, June 24, 2002 - European telecoms revenues will vary
significantly in the next five years depending on the outcome of key market
uncertainties, according to a new report Scenarios for the European Telecoms
Market 2002-2007: forecasts and analysis, published by Analysys, the global
adviser on telecoms and new media (www.research.analysys.com).
By 2007, telecoms revenues could reach EUR318 billion according to
Analysys's 'Championship Bout' scenario, but, in contrast, they could be as
low as EUR285 billion if its 'Prize Fight' scenario unfolds.
"With the telecoms market still in turmoil, operators, service providers and
vendors must plan effectively to cope with a range of market uncertainties
if they are to survive and to return to sustainable profitability," says
Ross Pow, the report's author. "Clearly the focus today is about addressing
debt and building cash flow in the short term, but companies need some
long-term planning too."
Analysys believes that scenarios provide a far better understanding of how
the market might evolve compared to linear planning. In its new report, the
author has identified three main critical uncertainties for the telecoms
market in Western Europe - customer demand for new services, the technical
success of new mobile data services and changes in regulation. These have
enabled Analysys to create its three scenarios - 'Championship Bout', 'Prize
Fight' and 'Free for All'.
The 'Championship Bout' scenario assumes that customers are quick to adopt
new services and these work well, and that regulators intervene to ensure
full competition. In the 'Prize Fight' scenario customers are slow to adopt
new services and want the same services faster and cheaper; regulators
intervene to stimulate demand and governments promote policies for
broadband. In the 'Free for All' scenario, customers want to adopt new
services but these don't work as well as hoped and the regulators avoid
intervening as even the biggest operators struggle.
"By analysing the impact of these scenarios on market growth assumptions
such as service take-up, pricing, fixed-mobile substitution and ARPUs, we
have modelled the potential retail service revenues for the next five
years," adds Pow.
The scenarios reveal significantly different revenue outcomes for major
telecoms services - fixed voice, broadband and mobile voice and data - says
Analysys. The impact on the rate of voice price declines and the
cannibalisation of public switched telecoms network (PSTN) fixed telephony
by mobile and voice on IP were particularly noticeable.
"Telecoms players can take actions now to position themselves more
effectively for the future by creating two or three scenarios for how the
telecoms market will develop," adds Pow. "By preparing strategic options
against each scenario, playing out how competitors would react in each
situation, companies will be better equipped to maximise returns and respond
to market conditions whether these are favourable or difficult."
The report provides market forecasts for France, Germany, Sweden, the UK and
Western Europe, in terms of service revenues for fixed voice and data and
mobile voice and data, broken down by residential, SME and corporate
customer segments. Available in PDF and Powerpoint formats, report pricing
starts at EUR1100. Telephone +44 (0)1223 460600 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Analysys works at the forefront of the communications revolution, delivering
advice and insight to established and new entrant players. From offices in
Cambridge, London, Glasgow, Madrid, Milan, Paris, San Francisco and
Washington DC, Analysys staff provide strategy and systems consultancy,
information services and start-up support.
Tel: +44 (0)1223 460600
Martin Brooke Associates
Tel: +44 (0)1223 264050
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