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* Person-to-person messaging to grow from EUR13 billion in 2003 to EUR20
billion in 2008 across Western Europe

* Mobile entertainment service revenue to grow from less than EUR3 billion
in 2003 to nearly EUR11 billion in 2008 across Western Europe

* 3G delays will boost GPRS and public WLAN revenue potential


CAMBRIDGE, UK, March 26, 2003 - Mobile operators at last appear to be
halting the long-term decline in average revenue per user (ARPU) - an
essential step in ensuring continued revenue growth in the face of
stagnating subscriber numbers - according to a new report released this week
by Analysys, the global advisers on telecommunications, IT and media
(www.analysys.com). ARPU in Western Europe in 2002 averaged EUR31 per user
per month; the number of active subscribers is forecast to grow just 5% in
2003 to 309 million.


The report, Western European Mobile Forecasts and Analysis 2003-2008,
reveals that France, Germany, Spain and the UK all experienced growth in
ARPU for their active subscriber bases during 2002, while Italy's ARPU
remained almost flat, and Sweden's continued to decline.


"The main reason operators have been able to improve ARPU is because they
are achieving big gains in revenue from non-voice services, which include
person-to-person messaging and mobile entertainment services," says Katrina
Bond, lead author of the report.


Analysys estimates that mobile operators in Western Europe generated an
average of 12% of their revenue from non-voice services in 2002, but points
out that some operators cited even more impressive figures. For example, in
the final quarter of 2002, mmO2 obtained over 17% of its revenue from
non-voice services in the UK and nearly 20% in Germany.


"We forecast that 24% of mobile service revenue will come from non-voice
services by 2005 and 36% by 2008, with the bulk of that going to mobile
operators," added Bond. "Person-to-person messaging has been responsible for
most of the growth to date, and these services will continue to be
important, but mobile entertainment services such as downloadable games will
become increasingly significant revenue earners."


The report forecasts that, across Western Europe, person-to-person messaging
will grow from EUR13 billion in 2003 to EUR20 billion in 2008 as this
service extends from SMS to also include large volumes of multimedia
messages and email. Meanwhile, mobile entertainment service revenue will
grow from less than EUR3 billion in 2003 to nearly EUR11 billion in 2008.
(Graph available on request.)


However, the long awaited and much delayed 3G services will only account for
6% of subscribers and 6.5% of non-voice revenue in 2005. This not only
widens the opportunity for GPRS, but also gives public wireless local area
networks (WLAN) a greater opportunity to take hold. Analysys forecasts that
1.5% to 2.5% of annual 2.5G and 3G non-voice revenue could be lost to public
WLAN by 2008, and that the loss could be as high as 8% amongst business
customers.


Western European Mobile Forecasts and Analysis 2003-2008 analyses the key
factors that are driving the mobile market in Western Europe, and provides
detailed forecasts of subscribers, ARPU and revenue for Western Europe as a
whole, as well as for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. It
covers four market segments and eight service categories. It is available to
purchase online at http://research.analysys.com/store. Prices start from
EUR1900. For more information, telephone Analysys on +44 (0)1223 460600 or
email research@analysys.com.


About Analysys ( http://www.analysys.com )


Analysys, the global advisers in telecoms, IT and new media, works at the
forefront of the communications revolution, delivering advice and insight to
established and new entrant players. From offices in Cambridge, London,
Glasgow, Madrid, Milan, Paris, San Francisco and Washington DC, Analysys
staff provide strategy and systems consultancy, information services and
start-up support to the companies that are creating the networked economy.
Analysys Research reports and market intelligence services provide
authoritative coverage of this convergent industry, based on an unrivalled
ability to fuse real-world experience, rigorous research and forward-looking
analysis.

Recent and forthcoming reports include:

* Public WLAN access in Western Europe and the USA: market forecasts and
analysis (March 2003)

* Regulating the Telecoms Market: competition and innovation in the
broadband economy (February 2003)

* Fixed Network Operators in Western Europe: is there an underlying growth
market? (February 2003)

* Business Data Services: growth opportunities and forecasts 2002-2007
(January 2003)

* The Future for Fixed-Mobile Substitution: options for fixed and mobile
operators (December 2002)

* Competing in the European Directory Services Market: opportunities in a
liberalising market (December 2002)

* Mobile Content and Entertainment: forecasting the market for games and
other wireless content (November 2002)

* Strategies for Mobile Device Evolution: meeting and creating market demand
(October 2002)

* Western European Mobile Forecasts and Analysis 2002-2007 (September 2002)

* Cable TV Market Scenarios to 2007: prospects for cable TV operators in
Germany, the Netherlands and the UK (September 2002)

* IP Voice Services: the return on investment for European service providers
(September 2002)

* The Future for Telecoms Incumbents: the impact of competition, regulation
and customer demand (July 2002)

* Charging and Revenue Sharing for Mobile Content and Entertainment (July 2002)

* Enabling Prepaid Mobile Content and Data Services: strategies for
operators and vendors (June 2002)

* IP Voice Services: European corporate market forecasts 2002-2007 (May 2002)

* Scenarios for the European Telecoms Market 2002-2007: forecasts and
analysis (May 2002)

* Benchmarks and Key Performance Indicators: lessons from the European
telecoms market (April 2002)

* The Reality of GPRS in Europe: subscribers and revenue (April 2002)

* Session Initiation Protocol: SIP-related European revenue forecasts
2002-2007 (February 2002)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: US Market Forecasts 2002-2007 (January 2002)

* Video Streaming for Enterprises: forecast revenues for service providers
(December 2001)

* GPRS Roaming: technical options and strategic implications (December 2001)

* Storage Area Networks: New Revenues for Optical Carriers? (November 2001)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: Market Forecasts (November 2001)

* Pricing GPRS Services (October 2001)

* FRIACO: how capacity-based interconnection strengthens the Internet market
(October 2001)

* Meeting the Challenges of GPRS Billing (September 2001)

* The Bandwidth Exchange: Herald of a New Carrier Age (August 2001)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: A Threat to Mobile Operators? (August 2001)

* Controlling the 3G Value Chain (July 2001)

* Successfully Marketing Mobile Data Services to SMEs (July 2001)

* Gigabit Ethernet: the solution to the MAN bandwidth bottleneck? (July 2001)

* Market Realities of IP-VPNs (July 2001)


Media contacts (for author photography, executive summaries and interviews)

Louise Nunn

Analysys

Tel: +44 (0)1223 460600

Email: louise.nunn@analysys.com

Martin Brooke

Martin Brooke Associates

Tel: +44 (0)1223 264050

Email: martin.brooke@mba-pr.com


This press release was distributed by ResponseSource Press Release Wire on behalf of Martin Brooke Associates in the following categories: Consumer Technology, Personal Finance, Business & Finance, Computing & Telecoms, for more information visit https://pressreleasewire.responsesource.com/about.