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* Growth rates in 8 countries profiled to decline from 4% in 1998-2002 to
less than 1.6% for 2002-7

* Fixed spend in Austria, Germany, Italy and Sweden could be in decline by 2007

* Fixed network operators need flexible strategies to maximise growth
potential for voice, broadband and data networking markets

* Broadband spend to increase from EUR9.6 billion in 2002 to at least
EUR25.8 billion in 2007



CAMBRIDGE, UK, April 3, 2003 - Growth in fixed telecoms spend in eight of
the largest Western European countries is forecast to decrease from 4.1%
(CAGR) for 1998-2002 to 1.6% for 2002-7, according to a report released this
week by Analysys, the global advisers on telecommunications, IT and media
( http://www.analysys.com ). Countries studied in this report include: Austria,
France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK.


This slowdown, states Analysys in its latest study entitled 'Fixed Network
Operators in Western Europe: is there an underlying growth market?', is a
direct result of voice revenues falling at a faster rate than the
corresponding growth in spending on Internet access and data networking
services. Within individual countries, notably Austria, Germany, Italy and
Sweden, fixed telecoms spend could be in decline by 2007.


However, if fixed operators find the optimal approach to their particular
markets, and external uncertainties are resolved, then, says Analysys, total
fixed spend could rise by almost 3% (CAGR) from around EUR125 billion in
2002 to just over EUR144 billion in 2007, according to Analysys' 'high
spend' forecast. This is nearly twice the growth rate forecast in Analysys'
more conservative 'most likely' forecast in which spend is expected to grow
by 1.6% (CAGR) to just over EUR135 billion in 2007. (Charts available to
journalists on request.)


"With such variation in fixed spend growth rates it is vital that network
operators are proactive in stimulating the market to reach the 'high spend'
forecast, and that they develop flexible strategies to allow
them to react quickly to changes in competition, customer demand, regulation
and investor expectations," said Ariel Dajes, lead author of the report.
"Operators should focus on customer retention to minimise the decline in
spend in the voice market; concentrate on broadband pricing and on ensuring
widespread availability; and develop a focused approach to the business data
networking market."


The broadband market is the fastest growing segment of fixed telecoms and is
forecast to grow rapidly from EUR9.6 billion in 2002 to EUR25.8 billion in
2007 according to Analysys' 'most likely' forecast. Voice spend will decline
from EUR82.5 billion in 2002 to EUR72.1 billion in 2007; Internet dial-up
spend will peak in 2004 at EUR10.5 billion but will tail off after that;
while spend on business data networking services will increase from EUR23.0
billion in 2002 to EUR27.3 billion in 2007.


Written by Ariel Dajes, the new report analyses the strategic options
available to fixed operators to maximise revenues from the different service
propositions of voice, Internet (dial-up and broadband) and data networking
services, and examines the key drivers that are shaping these services. The
report includes 'high spend' and 'most likely' forecasts for spend on the
three service propositions for Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the
Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK.


The report is available to purchase online at
http://research.analysys.com/store. Prices start from EUR1900. For more
information, telephone Analysys on +44 (0)1223 460600 or email
research@analysys.com.


About Analysys ( http://www.analysys.com )

Analysys, the global advisers in telecoms, IT and new media, works at the
forefront of the communications revolution, delivering advice and insight to
established and new entrant players. From offices in Cambridge, London,
Glasgow, Madrid, Milan, Paris, San Francisco and Washington DC, Analysys
staff provide strategy and systems consultancy, information services and
start-up support to the companies that are creating the networked economy.
Analysys Research reports and market intelligence services provide
authoritative coverage of this convergent industry, based on an unrivalled
ability to fuse real-world experience, rigorous research and forward-looking
analysis.

Recent and forthcoming reports include:


* Maximising the Broadband Opportunity: new technologies in xDSL (June 2003)

* Mobile Data Services for Businesses: applications, demand and forecasts
(June 2003)

* Pricing Mobile Messaging, Content and Entertainment Services: a structured
approach to maximising revenue and increasing margins (May 2003)

* Bundling Broadband Value-Added Services for SMEs: VAS revenue forecasts
2003-2008 (May 2003)

* Return on Investment from Mobile Business Data Applications: lessons from
corporate customers (April 2003)

* Where Next for Mobile Messaging: driving profitability and controlling
cannibalisation (April 2003)

* Western European Mobile Forecasts and Analysis 2003-2008 (March 2003)

* Public WLAN access in Western Europe and the USA: market forecasts and
analysis (March 2003)

* Regulating the Telecoms Market: competition and innovation in the
broadband economy (February 2003)

* Business Data Services: growth opportunities and forecasts 2002-2007
(January 2003)

* Competition in Corporate Networking: strategies for operators and systems
integrators (January 2003)

* The Future for Fixed-Mobile Substitution: options for fixed and mobile
operators (December 2002)

* Competing in the European Directory Services Market: opportunities in a
liberalising market (December 2002)

* Mobile Content and Entertainment: forecasting the market for games and
other wireless content (November 2002)

* Strategies for Mobile Device Evolution: meeting and creating market demand
(October 2002)

* Western European Mobile Forecasts and Analysis 2002-2007 (September 2002)

* Cable TV Market Scenarios to 2007: prospects for cable TV operators in
Germany, the Netherlands and the UK (September 2002)

* IP Voice Services: the return on investment for European service providers
(September 2002)

* The Future for Telecoms Incumbents: the impact of competition, regulation
and customer demand (July 2002)

* Charging and Revenue Sharing for Mobile Content and Entertainment (July 2002)

* Enabling Prepaid Mobile Content and Data Services: strategies for
operators and vendors (June 2002)

* IP Voice Services: European corporate market forecasts 2002-2007 (May 2002)

* Scenarios for the European Telecoms Market 2002-2007: forecasts and
analysis (May 2002)

* Benchmarks and Key Performance Indicators: lessons from the European
telecoms market (April 2002)

* The Reality of GPRS in Europe: subscribers and revenue (April 2002)

* Session Initiation Protocol: SIP-related European revenue forecasts
2002-2007 (February 2002)

* Public Wireless LAN Access: US Market Forecasts 2002-2007 (January 2002)


Media contacts (for author photography, executive summaries and interviews):


Natalie Dargan

Analysys Research

Tel: +44 (0) 1223 460600

Email: natalie.dargan@analysys.com


Martin Brooke

Martin Brooke Associates

Tel: +44 (0) 1223 264050

Email: martin.brooke@mba-pr.com

This press release was distributed by ResponseSource Press Release Wire on behalf of Martin Brooke Associates in the following categories: Consumer Technology, Personal Finance, Business & Finance, Computing & Telecoms, for more information visit https://pressreleasewire.responsesource.com/about.