As Donald Trump heads back to the White House, a University of Sussex professor who has been successfully predicting bitcoin (BTC) prices since 2021, is forecasting unprecedented highs which may breach $100k per token.
Prof Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex Business School says bitcoin’s rapid rise in the immediate wake of the US election is likely to continue before Trump’s inauguration on 20th January 2025. She also believes the lesser-known currencies ether (ETH) and dogecoin (DOGE) will keep moving in the same direction, especially with the latter’s links to key Trump ally Elon Musk.
Prof Alexander, who does not hold bitcoin herself, told CNBC back in January that if Trump won, the price could reach $100k by the end of this year, but only if Blackrock and Fidelity ETF Market Makers managed to reduce volatility. Today, she has confirmed that bullish forecast, while issuing a stark warning as we enter a new age of deregulation.
Prof Carol Alexander said: “This bull run will increase adoption by retail especially, but also institutions. Unfortunately, this growth will be on the back of failing regulations. Huge hidden risks will be swept under the carpet as the US Securities Exchange Commission ceases to take out civil actions against unregulated exchanges.”
Back in 2022 Prof Alexander predicted that bitcoin would fall from $50k to $10k and while it didn’t get quite that low, there were major falls to $14k. For 2023 she said the price would rally to $50k and it reached $44,700 by December. In January this year she predicted the rise to an all-time-high of $70k over the summer, potentially followed by an end of year rally to $100k.
More than $400bn has flowed into crypto since the election. This may be in anticipation of a low-regulation environment which will benefit high frequency traders that drive prices up and down in a way that disadvantages everyday investors.
Through her work as head of the University of Sussex’s Quantitative FinTech group Prof Alexander’s research focuses on bitcoin price formation, under the general theme of centralized and decentralized crypto market microstructure. She is also a vocal advocate of greater regulation in the industry to protect investors.
She adds: “Trump plans to establish a national bitcoin reserve, to support fossil-fuelled domestic bitcoin mining, and to remove the SEC Chair Gary Gensler to stop the 'regulation via litigation’ approach being led by US market authorities.’’
“Elon Musk’s posts on X can also induce unwitting investors to herd into crypto, only to see prices fall again almost immediately. For instance, his famous 'Doge Barking at the Moon’ in April 2021 sent the DOGE token price from 5 cents to 60 cents in a few days; but it quickly fell back to about 20 cents, where it still is today.’’
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For more information or to speak with Prof Alexander, please contact Vicky Welstead on press@sussex.ac.uk
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