When pay is uncertain, people choose work over rest new study finds

Uncertain pay leads people to overwork and neglect necessary rest and recovery, even if the amount they earn is no different from other groups on fixed pay.

Compared to those earning consistent pay, those facing uncertain pay were 32% more likely to keep working instead of taking a break even though the total amount participants earned was the same across groups. As financial rewards decreased for all participants, those paid a certain amount quickly recognised their efforts were no longer rewarded and opted to quit the task and rest. Not so for those paid an uncertain amount, who continued to work even when the financial reward had dropped to almost zero, new research from emlyon business school professors Gordon Sayre and Brice Corgnet have found.

rather than stop and take a break, showing how uncertainty over pay can keep people working even when the reward is practically worthless.

The study found that it is not simply performance-based pay itself that harms wellbeing, but the uncertainty it creates. This is particularly relevant as performance-related pay continues to grow across modern workplaces, with 30–40% of workers in the United States and European Union reporting some form of performance-based compensation, including commissions, bonuses, tips and gig economy incentives.

Across five experiments involving 1,476 participants, the researchers tested how people responded to certain versus uncertain pay structures. Participants completed simple paid tasks and were given the option to stop working and switch to a low-effort recovery activity, such as browsing the internet.

The average amount participants were paid was held constant, with researchers manipulating the uncertainty around that pay. Those in the pay certainty group were paid the same amount for each correct answer (12 tokens, converted into cash at the end of the experiment), while those in the pay uncertainty group were paid a random number of tokens, between 1 and 23 (making the average 12). As the experiment progressed, the value of continuing to work dropped sharply, making rest the rational choice.

However, participants facing uncertain rewards were far less likely to stop working. In one experiment, two thirds of the participants continued working for an additional 10 minutes for an average return of just 1.92 cents.

“Participants facing greater pay uncertainty work longer and delay recovery, even when financial rewards for continuing to work become negligible.” Says professor Sayre.

In the first study, workers facing uncertain pay were 32.8% less likely to stop and engage in recovery compared to those with certain pay. In a second study, gig economy workers who are well-versed in balancing flexible work and variable income were still 20% less likely to take a break under uncertain pay conditions.

The researchers found this was not because people enjoyed the work more or preferred uncertain rewards. When given the choice, the majority of participants in fact preferred the pay certainty condition. Instead, uncertain pay increased feelings of financial scarcity, creating a stronger focus on earning and making it harder to prioritise recovery.

Professor Corgnet says “Pay uncertainty increases perceptions of financial scarcity, causing people to work harder and neglect recovery as a way of hedging against this scarcity.”

This creates what the researchers describe as a cycle of overwork: workers keep chasing earnings even when the immediate financial benefit is negligible, delaying the rest needed to protect long-term wellbeing.

The findings help explain why performance-based pay can improve short-term productivity while also contributing to higher stress, anxiety, burnout and poorer health outcomes.

For employers, organisations do not necessarily need to abandon performance pay, but they should reduce unnecessary uncertainty around how rewards are earned. This could be done by reducing the percentage of overall pay that comes from uncertain sources, providing clearer guidelines and expectations for how performance pay is distributed, or smoothing out uncertain pay by distributing bonuses and commissions over a longer timeframe (e.g., quarterly vs. weekly).

Clearer, more predictable compensation structures may help employees perform well without sacrificing recovery, wellbeing and long-term sustainability.

ENDS

If you would be interested in reading or knowing more about the study or talking to Gordan Sayre or Brice Corgnet please contact adam@bluesky-pr.com