London March 13th, 2019 - The remarkable growth of sparkling wine in the UK will continue as it steals market share from still wine, while gin will drive the entire spirits market, forecasts the latest market analysis from the IWSR Vinexpo Report 2012-2022.
Consumption of all sparkling wines, led by Prosecco, will climb from 14.4 million 9 litre cases in 2017 to 16.2 million by 2022. A comparison of growth per head over ten years from 2012 shows consumption growing from 1.8 litres to 2.8 litres by 2022.
Imports of Prosecco will rise to 11.7 million cases by 2022 at the expense of both Champagne, Cava and all still wine, the report forecasts. English sparkling wine is forecast to add 100,000 cases to the market in that period.
The UK will remain the world’s second largest import market for still wine by 2022 behind Germany in first place. Over the 2017-2022 period UK consumption of still wine will drop from 114.2 million cases in 2017 (equivalent to 20 litres per head) to 100.9 million cases million cases (17.3 litres per head).
Among the top five import countries Australia will continue to be the UK’s leading supplier, albeit showing a decline from 23.6 million cases in 2017 to 18.8 million cases, by 2022.
With the exception of Spain, which by 2022 will be challenging France for the number two position, imports from the other countries will decline. Chile, New Zealand and Argentina, by contrast, will also show growth.
The phenomenal rise of gin will see the sector grow by 12.8% to 8.5 million cases by 2022, a growth rate outstripping vodka (7.9 million cases) and Scotch Whisky (5.8 million cases).
UK spirits consumption overall will mark steady growth over the five-year period with US and Irish whiskey and tequila/mescal showing good progress, says the report.
Malt Scotch is forecast to show steady grow for consumers looking for provenance and heritage. Growth is likely at the top end in blends where producers are seeking to change perceptions that a single malt is better quality than a similar priced blend.
While the top two Scotch markets (France and the USA) are expected to contract by 2022, though this will be compensated by gains in other large Scotch markets, noticeably Brazil, Mexico, Russia and India.
Gin is forecast to continue to take share from vodka and to drive sales further through Pink Gin due to its flavours, making and stand out from a crowd of gins-and-tonic.
Jack Daniel’s domination of the US Whiskey category in the UK is dominant, the report notes. Premium and above US Whiskey will be driven by the on-trade where Rye whiskey is also expected to show growth.
Other spirits categories with positive outlooks are:
• Mezcal/Tequila: Mezcal is likely to grow faster than Tequila because it has more quality and provenance cues
• Brandy: UK brandy set to grow as UK wine production increases. Grappa to grow at the top end as aged lines filer through
• Rum: Premium increasingly seen as a sipping spirit similar to single malt whisky
• Liqueurs: Classic high-strength liqueurs are being driven by the cocktail trend
• Vodka: UK produced super-premium vodka likely to benefit from consumer trail as a sideways move from local gin
Since its establishment in Bordeaux in 1981, on the initiative of Bordeaux Gironde’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Vinexpo has been a leading organizer of events for the wine and spirits industry. In 38 years, Vinexpo has developed a unique understanding of the market and an extensive network of key distributors around the world. The brand currently runs exhibitions in five set locations (Bordeaux, Hong Kong, New York, and soon Shanghai and Paris), and the touring event Vinexpo Explorer. Every year, the Group also publishes the Vinexpo/IWSR Report, which is the most comprehensive survey on the global consumption of wine and spirits.
Vinexpo Bordeaux will take place on 13-16 May 2019.
About The IWSR
The IWSR is the leading source of data and analysis on the alcoholic beverage market. The IWSR’s database, essential to the industry, quantifies the global market of wine, spirits, beer, cider and mixed drinks by volume and value in 157 countries, and provides insight into short- and long-term trends, including five-year volume and value forecasts. The IWSR tracks overall consumption and trends at brand, price segment and category level. Our data is used by the major multinational wine, spirits and beer companies, as well as financial and alcoholic beverage market suppliers. The IWSR’s unique methodology allows us to get closer to what is actually consumed and better understand how markets work. Our analysts travel the world in order to meet over 1,600 local professionals to capture market trends and the ‘why’ behind the numbers.
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