London, March 1, 2017 – Single and blended malt whiskies are fuelling a revival of Scotch whisky sales worldwide and this year Scotch whisky began a new period of growth, says a report from VINEXPO, the world’s leading wine and spirits exhibition.
The VINEXPO/IWSR global spirits study 2015-2020 forecasts that sales of all types of Scotch whisky will start to climb from a plateau of 86.5 million 9-litre cases to reach 93.8 million cases by 2020.
The report comments that from their smaller base malts will grow faster than blended whiskies due to their craft and provenance credentials. Higher priced segments will continue to gain market share while North America and Asia will see the fastest development of malt Scotch over the period.
The rapid development of malt Scotch in the US will offset the decline of blended Scotch leaving overall volumes flat.
The major growth regions worldwide will be Asia and Latin America. Volume sales in the Asia Pacific region are forecast to grow from just over 14 million 9-litre cases in 2016 to more than 16.5 million cases by 2020.
In the UK, Scotch continues to lose ground as core consumers age or move to more on-trend categories. Malts are likely to see higher growth at super-pemium level.
Scotch and US whiskies are together expected to be the best-performing international spirts categories between 2016 and 2020. Consumption of Bourbon is set to rise from 39.5 million cases in 2015 to 46.5 million cases in 2020.
But for volume they are outshone by national spirits of which Baiju, almost exclusively drunk in China, and Indian-made foreign liquour are the leaders. National spirits such as these account for the rise in world spirit consumption and will keep China in the number one spot with sales of 1.27 billion 9-litre cases by 2020. Total Baiju consumption is forecast to reach 1.4 billion cases that year.
Gin is another spirits sector experiencing consumption growth ‘for the first time in decades’. The rise is due to the growth of premium-and-above gins together with elaborate gin and tonic mixes and imaginative marketing, says the report.
While all regions, bar Asia and North America, are expected to grow, Europe will be the driving force behind the category and is forecast to become the world’s largest gin-consuming region by 2020.
Sales of Gin and Genever (the latter falling) are forecast to reach 55.6 million 9-litre cases by 2020. In Europe in the same period they are slated to rise from 15.8 million 9-litre cases to 18.2 million cases by 2020.
The interest in Gin is attributed to consumer curiosity aroused by the explosion of different brands with various craft and quality cues, as well as the cocktail segment. Classic cocktails are driving the trend in Australasia while the emergence of cocktail bars in major bars in Asia is essential to the prosperity of Premium-and-above Gins.
Tequila is poised to be ‘extremely buoyant’ in coming years, especially in the Americas where it is supported by the growth in the Margarita cocktail. The UK is expected to be a key sales driver as perceptions of the spirit improve. World consumption of Tequila is set to reach 32.9 million cases over the next five years
By contrast Vodka brandy and rum expected to see most decline.
Vodka has seen sales fall at home in the CIS and in Europe and the USA. As a result world consumption will fall from 471.2 million cases in 2015to 438.8 million by 2020.
Rum consumption is showing a global decline which has been apparent from2011. However, the rate of decline will slow in the next five years from 140 million 9-litre cases in 2015, global rum consumption is expected to fall to 136 million cases by 2020.
Global brandy peaked in 2011 and is now set to fall from 175.7 million cases to 161.7 million by 2020.
Total world consumption of spirits is expected to be 3.19 billion cases by 2020.
VINEXPO is the world’s leading international wine and spirit exhibition and takes place
In Bordeaux, France, from June 18 to June 21 this year.
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