WORLD WINE AND SPIRITS VALUE HOLDS FIRM DURING BUMPY THREE YEAR RIDE, FORECASTS VINEXPO/IWSR
UK still wine volume falls while sparkling wine and spirits rise China overtakes France for wine value by 2023
London, January 15, 2020 – The total world value of still and sparkling wines is forecast to reach more than $204 billion by 2023 despite a volatile picture for market volume, reveals the latest Vinexpo/IWSR forecasts.
A comparison of value over a five year period from 2018 shows an increase from $194 billion, but with volume fluctuating from 2.61 billion 9-litre cases to the 2.6 billion cases forecast for 2023.
While the leaders of the world’s top five light grape wines markets will remain unchanged, the USA will be driving both volume and value, with the latter reaching more than $40 billion. Among the other four value leaders (France, UK, Italy, China) France will be overtaken by China by 2023 with value of nearly $18 billion against France’s $16 billion.
World volume and value of sparkling wine will slip slightly in the run up to 2023, but much less than still wine. By 2023 sparkling wine value is expected to reach $32 billion. Prosecco will be the major driver of sparkling wine reaching 154 million 9-litre cases.
The forecasts show the UK, the second largest volume importer after Germany, retaining third spot in the value rankings for light wine at $15.5 billion. Nonetheless, in tune with long-term decline, this is a fall from $16.6 billion recorded in 2018.
UK still volumes will continue a ten-year decline showing a loss of 29.3 million cases from 2013 to 2023. Per capita consumption is expected to fall from 22.3 litres to 19.35 litres over the period. UK consumption of sparkling wine is set to remain steady at around 25 litres per head with volume hovering around 14 million cases.
While global Spirits volumes are driven by locally made products, imports and global brands are eating into their share growing by 9% to 2023. Total world spirit volumes will reach 2.8 billion 9-litre cases by 2023. Increases in premium and super-premium spirits will be a major factor.
Whiskey of all types – big gains are forecast for local whiskeys from India, Burma, Angola, Kenya and Nigeria – will be a major driver of global growth reaching 7.9% over the period. Other spirits tipped to grow are gin, rum and agave-based.
Pushed by standard and premium segments, Scotch whisky will continue to show growth at a CAGR of 1.5%. However, three main markets – France, UK and the USA – are poised to contract. By contrast rising volumes in India, Latin America and Russia are forecast to offset that reduction. The volume of all Scotch whisky segments is set to reach 94.3 billion cases by 2023.
The global gin phenomenon will continue to grow showing CAGR of more than 4% between 2018 and 2023 to reach total world volume of 86.16 billion cases. The UK and Philippines will lead growth.
In an initiative spearheaded by the Bordeaux-Gironde Chamber of Commerce and Industry,VINEXPO came into being in 1981 and today is the leading events organiser in the wine and spirits sector. Over nearly 40 years, Vinexpo has gained a unique understanding of the market and gathered a huge global network of influential distributors. The brand now organises events in five cities worldwide (Bordeaux, Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai and soon Paris), in addition to a roadshow, Vinexpo Explorer. Every year, the group also publishes one of the most exhaustive market studies on global wine and spirits consumption: the Vinexpo/IWSR report.
About The IWSR
The IWSR is the leading source of data and analysis on the alcoholic beverage market. The IWSR's database quantifies the global market of wine, spirits, beer, cider and mixed drinks by volume and value in 157 countries with insight into short- and long-term trends, including five-year volume and value forecasts.
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